It has been an interesting week in US-China relations. As recently as a few of weeks ago, China had been threatening to blacklist foreign companies that “sided” with the US in the ongoing trade war.
The move to establish the blacklist came after the United States hit Huawei with an export ban, effectively barring US companies from doing business with the smartphone and telecom equipment maker.
The ban was designed to keep the nation’s networks secure from foreign adversaries. The concern is that the company’s products could offer the Chinese government a way to spy on sensitive US communications. Huawei denied the accusations.
In the middle of May, Xi Jinping, China’s leader, had warned his people of a new “Long March.” “We are here at the starting point of the Long March to remember the time when the Red Army began its journey,” Xi told cheering crowds in Jiangxi province. “We are now embarking on a new Long March, and we must start all over again.” Jiangxi province is the site of the Red Army’s retreat in 1934-36. Xi appeared to be warning his people that hardships lay ahead.
Xi Jinping visits Tantou village in Yudu county, during a tour of China’s Jiangxi province on May 20, 2019. At the home of veteran Sun Guanfa, a descendant of a Red Army soldier, Xi chatted with Sun’s family and local officials. Photo: Xinhua
No trade negotiations were scheduled once the talks “collapsed” amid accusations from China of “bullying” by the US. This had followed the “collapse” of the US-North Korea talks in Hanoi.
All of that has changed in the last 2 weeks. Xi has scheduled bilateral discussions with South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in and extended discussions with PDJT in Osaka during the G20 conference. Xi’s and PDJT’s advance people and negotiators are working again. Xi also arranged to visit North Korea on very short notice and was there on Thursday and Friday. North Korea is not part of the G20.
Prior to Xi’s arrival in North Korea, Xi published an op-ed in North Korea’s state newspaper where he praised Chairman Kim’s “correct thinking.” By this he specifically meant the work towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.
“China supports how (North Korea) is maintaining the right direction to politically resolve the issues on the Korean Peninsula and supports efforts to find a solution (to serve North Korea’s) rational interests through dialogue,” Xi wrote in the Rodong Sinmun newspaper.
Keep in mind that no Chinese leader has visited North Korea in 14 years. It would appear that China decided to provide their wise and enlightened leadership in public to help resolve issues on the Korean Peninsula.
This is highly unusual. China had been content to pull strings behind the scenes, to use North Korea as a wedge against the West without appearing to do so. China then steps in at opportune times and “guides” North Korea to some result that the West wants. In return China receives concessions elsewhere.
Now, in a very real sense, China has taken public ownership of North Korea’s actions. This neutralizes North Korea as a pawn in China’s battle with all other nations. The responsibility for hostile actions taken by North Korea will fall back onto China. This removes the nuclear threat that North Korea had posed.
Why did China do this? According to the NYTimes,
Before Mr. Xi landed in Pyongyang on Thursday, American officials said they expected him to try to secure Mr. Kim’s promise to take steps on nuclear weapons that might appeal to Mr. Trump, in hopes of gaining leverage for China in the trade dispute.
Mr. Xi signaled as much in a televised session with Mr. Kim on his first afternoon in Pyongyang, when he emphasized the need for the North and the United States to revive talks that broke down in Vietnam in February, when Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump last met.
“The international community hopes that North Korea and the United States can talk and for the talks to get results,” Mr. Xi said, sitting across a table from Mr. Kim. (read more)
Remember this is the NYTimes who is speaking here. This is certainly not a state-run media outlet doing the government’s bidding. If China is thinking the same way the NYTimes is, they do not understand PDJT. PDJT’s goal was to remove the threat that North Korea posed. He has accomplished that with China taking ownership of North Korea’s actions.
This does not mean that the negotiations to open up North Korea to modern economic development were a sham. On the contrary I believe that Mr. Kim, who was educated in the West (boarding school in Switzerland), would very much like to lead his country to prosperity. Chairman Kim loves his country and his people. When Kim accepted Trump’s offer to liberate North Korea economically, the stakes could not have been higher. It took an enormous amount of trust that President Trump can, and will, keep his word to see it through to the end. PDJT does keep his word.
With that in mind PDJT sent Mr. Kim a personal letter. In an interesting aspect to the North Korean media report, KCNA released a picture of Mr. Kim reading the letter.
Reuters reported,
(Reuters) – North Korean leader Kim Jong Un received a personal letter from U.S. President Donald Trump and will put serious thought into its content, North Korea’s state-run news agency KCNA said.
In a report published early on Sunday in Asia, KCNA did not give details on the letter, but said Kim described it as “of excellent content.”
“Kim Jong Un said that he would seriously contemplate the interesting content,” the report said.
White House officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
There is certainly a lot of nuanced signaling going on with this picture. It is an absolute truth that Beijing, Russia, et al, have digested all the nuances.
Those who are supposed to have some insight into Asian signaling are indicating a number of things.
Releasing the photo of Kim studying PDJT’s letter gives honor to Trump far more than a press acknowledgement would. Holding something with both hands is a sign of respect. If someone gives you a document with both hands, they are giving you respect. Taking longer to read is more respect. Kim is concentrating on the letter, reading slowly and carefully.
White is the most commonly used color in Korea. Koreans were sometimes referred to as “the white clad people.” White is worn for weddings, New Year’s celebrations and funerals to celebrate the journey to the afterlife. The color white symbolizes purity, innocence, peace and patriotism. Traditionally, white represents the direction West.
There is a notebook and pen on each side of him. He is ready to come to the table with the US and China. Or perhaps the second spot is for South Korea to come and sign to end the Korean War. Kim is ready for a change. He has left the traditions and the problems on his regular desk under the picture.
This should give us hope. Hope that there will be an opening up of North Korea to economic development and to North Korea joining the world’s nations as a civilized member.
Where this leaves the US-China trade dispute is unclear. I cannot see PDJT backing away from the deal that was negotiated over 18 months. And now that the leverage of using North Korea has been exposed, China can cry that the US does not want a denuclearized Korea, but the world will know that China is the one pulling the strings. The G20 conference should be interesting.