Back in Early March PDJT went on the Sean Hannity show. PDJT said that he had a hunch that the fatality rate for the Wuhan virus would turn out to be much lower than what WHO was quoting at the time (3 to 4 percent). The President said he thought it would turn out to be below one percent.
The President’s hunch is turning out to prescient. Recent antibody surveys conducted in multiple locations around the country show that the number of people infected are many orders of magnitude higher than the confirmed case numbers.
In Chelsea, Massachusetts, nearly one third of people who randomly volunteered a drop of blood for the test were found to have antibodies. This was 16 times the rate of confirmed cases. This was a small sample from a working-class town. Most of those who tested positive did not know they had had the virus although some reported as having had a cold.
In New York State 13.9% of people tested in a COVID-19 antibody study tested positive. This study was ordered by Governor Cuomo to enhance understanding of what the level of immunity might be there. Extrapolating these numbers leads to the suggestion that some 2.7 million people in New York have been infected. More than half would be in NYC where the antibody rate was over 20%. With 2.7 million cases, the mortality rate would be around 0.5 percent, well below one percent.
In Los Angeles County, California, adults tested positive for antibodies at a rate of infection that may be 40 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. A similar study in Santa Clara County produced results with even higher rates.
All of this points to a mortality rate well below one percent and a rate that is approaching the typical flu mortality rate. It also means the wild and extraordinarily flawed models from IHME and the UK may have resulted in shutting down the country for no good reason. In fact, the idea that there would be a 20% hospitalization rate has disappeared into thin air.
Are there vulnerable groups in the population? Yes. Do they need to take precautions just as any vulnerable group would to avoid influenza. Yes. However, it is clearly time to get back to work.