The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on labor shows a stunning disconnect. And this disconnect has been going on for some time. According to the BLS Establishment survey, 528,000 jobs were added in July. This is more than double the expectations of the so-called experts. This would make the employment situation red hot in this country.
How could the economy be shrinking if so many new jobs are being added? Well, the BLS Household survey shows a far smaller 179,000 increase. And this comes after a 315,000 drop in jobs in June via the Household survey.
Normally the two numbers track closely with each other. However, back in March something happened. The numbers have significantly diverged since then.
Since March, the Establishment Survey shows a gain of 1.680 million jobs while the Household Survey shows an employment loss of 168K! The current difference in jobs created is 1.8 million!
Which number is more likely correct? With the GDP contracting, it would seem that the Household survey is much more likely to be accurate. March would be a good inflection point since the economy started to contract during the first quarter.
Why is this kind of disconnect going on and who is responsible for these numbers? Perhaps a trip down memory lane is in order. During the administration of PDJT, the BLS employment numbers were always LOWER than the reality. Numbers would be adjusted upward in following months. This made the success of the PDJT administration’s economic efforts appear more subdued since most people would not see the adjustments.
The Democrats’ economic efforts have been an unmitigated disaster. They took a great economy and have run it into the ground. Even with help from government bureaucrats they have been unable to avoid a shrinking economy showing up in the data. And most people recognize the economy is in trouble.
The “R” word is an anathema to them. They want the talking bobbleheads to play down the problems with the economy. Talking about a hot job market provides the excuse for some to argue that we cannot be in a recession if all these jobs are being added. But are they?
The Household survey says otherwise and it is most likely to be way more accurate than the Establishment survey which is using some “seasonal adjustment factors” to achieve their numbers.
As Tyler Burden notes:
… since March, the BLS data engineers have been busy goalseeking the Establishment Survey (perhaps with the occasional nudge from the White House especially now that the economy is in a technical recession) to make it appear as if the economy is growing strongly.”
When will a correction take place? Technically it will be called an adjustment. The adjustment will probably happen after the midterm elections since the last thing the administration can afford to admit is that the labor market is crashing in addition to all the other economic woes they have visited on the American people.
Just one more example of how government bureaucrats lie to the American people.