We are now beginning to hear about an exit strategy from the morass that the West finds itself in. Ukraine is desperate to find any possible breakthrough to sell to their NATO masters at this point. However, the much-vaunted counter offensive (first in the Spring, then in June) has failed to materialize. No breakthroughs have been achieved despite massive losses of manpower and equipment
The Ukrainian defense secretary Danilov has announced a change in strategy. According to him, “…moving forward is not the main task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He specified that the defense forces of Ukraine now see the number one task as ” maximum destruction of manpower and equipment.”
That is ludicrous. The maximum destruction is taking place on Ukraine’s side of the frontlines.
Simplicius has noted that “famed Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner has released a new report detailing that Ukraine’s offensive has flat out ‘failed’. His key takeaway is that Ukraine is ‘using NATO tactics’ against a Russian prepared defense, and this simply doesn’t work and will not work. The simple fact is, no matter what tactics you use, you typically need an advantage of some sort, usually and classically, a numerical advantage to have a chance on offensive breakthrough.”
Such advantage does not exist.
The only areas where any advance has happened has been in “crumple zones” in front of highly defensible positions. Simplicius provides a good definition of what a crumple zone is.
In short, it is an area that’s typically in front of a heavily fortified place which has a natural geographic/topological advantage. In combat strategy, arguably the most important thing is the geography; whether it’s advantageous or not, etc.
So for instance, you may have an area with a high ground which is very naturally defensible and below that area is nothing but flat open ground with no natural cover, that is very difficult to defend even if you build trenches into it. To create a crumple/buffer zone, you would capture this flat area and hold it only as a forward expanse in order to give your troops room to pull back and slowly lead the enemy in through the enfilade of your defending units which will be holed up in much better cover, and shooting artillery from the elevated positions.
This is analogous to the crumple zones of your typical passenger car. Such zones give way to protect the occupants. The same is true here.
How does the West exit from this mess? There are rumors of secret talks going on looking for a ceasefire. Russia is unlikely to agree to such since this would allow Ukraine to re-arm. Rumors about peace talks by year end are being floated due to the proximity of the 2024 election cycle in the US. Would Russia be willing to engage in such?
Nowhere has Russia yet signaled such a thing, and in fact every single top Russian official is signaling the complete opposite: expanding goals. Remember Russia was willing to negotiate way back in 2022 shortly after the war began. Boris Johnson of the UK acted to squelch that with Zelensky. That leads us to where we are today.
A recent Op-ed by Medvedev was unequivocal in its demands. Medvedev names the “top three things the Anglo-Saxons must come to realize”:
- The confrontation with the West has become global. It is a total confrontation between the West and the rest of the global east and south rebelling against their hegemony.
- The confrontation will be very long, and it is too late to tame the mutineers. In short, he’s saying that they are dug in for the long haul and nothing the West can do will change Russia or the rest of the world’s mind. He says this confrontation will last for ‘decades’ and urges the West to accept it now to lessen the shock.
- What is Russia willing to do to ‘compromise’ or end the confrontation: the only thing that will end it, according to Medvedev, is that all anti-Russian initiatives must be completely revoked, and the Kiev Nazi regime should be totally “annihilated”.
There is little pressure on Putin in Russia to change course. In fact, expansion of the war is supported widely. Western propaganda has had little effect in Russia.
A prediction. Zelensky will be removed from power (CIA coup?). One of the Ukrainian generals will take over and will agree to Russia’s demands. Zelensky will be painted as a rogue leader who did not care for his people. He only cared for how much money he could extract from western governments. Stories about how much money his wife was spending in elite shopping locations in Europe will be floated for public consumption. Specific “Nazi” generals will be removed. Corruption may be the narrative for public consumption. It is well known in Ukraine that some generals have been siphoning aid money into their own accounts.
Can this happen before the 2024 election cycle gets into full swing? Only God knows.