Now I suppose one should not look a gift horse in the mouth. Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon. It is effective immediately. Of course, the usual language of resuming hostilities on a moment’s notice was part of the announcement.
CBS News reports:
Under the deal, a full and permanent ceasefire would be implemented immediately. There will be 60 days permitted for the full withdrawal of Israeli forces — a gradual withdrawal to allow the Lebanese forces to mobilize and move in to secure the area, but the trigger time is immediate, set to take effect later Tuesday.
The first peel-off of Israeli troops was to begin within the next 10 days.
Hezbollah is expected to pull its forces and heavy weapons back about 20 miles from the Israeli border, to the Litani River.
The question that needs to be asked is why now? Why did Israel agree and why did Hezbollah agree?
To answer these questions, one needs to look at the success or lack of it by each party to the war. What were Israel’s objectives in invading Lebanon? Were those objectives being met?
According to western media, Israel was operating at a different level than most militaries. The proof was the pager disaster for Hezbollah. Several thousand people were injured and/or killed. This was reported as an astounding success for Israel. Did such success translate into a winning war strategy?
Israel publicly stated that they would push Hezbollah across the Litani River. That did not happen. This was true despite Israel killing off and/or disabling much of Hezbollah leadership by various means.
Israel also has been unable to return Israelis to the North of Israel. This is true despite the full support of America, UK, France and Germany. This is true despite all the wonder weapons and money that was involved. Oh, and how long would such “wonder” weapons continue to have been available? Wars on two fronts (Ukraine and Israel) were a serious drain on munitions in western nations.
The war appeared to be something of a stalemate.
Then there are the casualties. Lawrence Wilkerson claims that Israel has suffered some 1500 KIA with a wounded number that is probably ten times that.
Mark Wauck notes:
In modern warfare, many wounded are saved from being KIAs only because of modern medicine and quick evacuation. The result, however, is large numbers of permanently disabled so, in effect, the majority of the wounded are both permanent losses to the military as well as a burden on society. Israel, as predicted, was unable to sustain such predictably high losses.
So, while Israel was not losing the war, they were certainly not winning it either.
What about Hezbollah? Why would Hezbollah agree? Certainly the decimation of their leadership would be a factor in their decision making. This is despite the “72 Virgins” myth of Islam.
Certainly a factor was the constant bombing from the air in Lebanon by Israel that Hezbollah was unable to diminish or end.
Megatron notes:
Pressure on Hezbollah inside Lebanon began to grow. Hezbollah did not have rockets with the destructive power like those of US that Israel used, so Hezbollah could not retaliate with the same measure and stop Israel from bombing civilian infrastructure, so Hezbollah failed to protect the civilian population.
In practice, Israel forced Hezbollah to cease fire by bombing civilians, not as they announced that they would defeat Hezbollah and drive them out of southern Lebanon with military force.
I am sure that other factors came into play as well. Iran’s reluctance to further antagonize Israel had to come into the decision making box. Just how effective Israel’s raids on Iran were is unknown. However, Iran has been less involved since those raids.
A ceasefire is a good thing. Fewer people will be killed. Let’s hope that such movements on the world stage will spread.