The Suspicious Cat is well…suspicious.
The timing of this war in Syria seems to be another log on the fire that the current administration is trying to create so that the Trump administration will not be able to drain the swamp.
Assad is gone from Syria having fled to Moscow where he and his cohorts were granted asylum. Damascus has fallen. People are being executed in the streets.
There is no question that the lame duck administration in Washington will draw vicarious pleasure that the incoming presidency of PDJT will have to grapple with prolonged instability and uncertainties in the area. So, the question has to be what did the CIA and other Deep State agencies have to do with what is happening there? Who is supplying the weapons and other forms of backing?
This is an oil-rich region that generates mucho petrodollars that helps to underpin the American dollar. How will this war drive the economics of the world?
The geo-political considerations here are many and quite complex.
The Obama administration tried to overthrow Assad during his administration but were stymied when Russia stepped in and provided Assad with support. Several false flag operations were attempted including the use of outlawed poison gas attacks against Assad’s people.
Back in 2012, Obama had signed a secret order authorizing US support for those who were trying to depose Assad at that time. Was this order ever rescinded? If so, was another one signed by Biden?
It has been reported that Israeli tanks have crossed the border into southern Syria. No doubt, Israel aims at extending its territory beyond Golan Heights into southern Syria. It is not unknown that Israel has been working with Islamist groups in southern Syria. Just how will the map change in this part of Syria?
Turkey will jump on this event to extend its influence into the areas in northern Syria where Kurdish separatists have been operating. It is quite possible that Turkey may annex these areas. Erdogan in Turkey has dreams of seeing Turkey as a much bigger player in the region as well as the world in general. This is clearly a chance to pursue those dreams.
Iran is a big loser here. The takeover by extremist Sunni groups is not in Iran’s favor. The evacuation of diplomats followed by the storming of the Iranian embassy in Damascus speaks for itself. Also, expect Israel to help build hostility toward Iran so that Iran’s influence in this area of the region is eliminated.
Sundance notes:
What happens next is anyone’s guess. The various elements of Islamic rebellion fall under the political umbrella of the Muslim Brotherhood; however, they have yet to show an ability to effectively govern in any region or state without extreme authoritarian rule. Odds are high that Syria will tilt in that direction and eventually fall upon the only governing mechanism they understand, Sharia Law.
Assad’s governance, while authoritarian, allowed for the existence of various sects and religions including Christianity. The elements taking over will be more like ISIS that will undoubtedly lead to more executions in the streets.
Other Arab states have to be concerned over the rise of militant extremist groups in the region. Where will they turn for support and help?
This is a hot mess. Do not expect any “solution” to be forthcoming any time soon.