As noted many times before, the news keeps rapidly changing on the frontlines fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. As recently as St. Patrick’s Day, models were predicting upwards of 2+ million deaths in the US.
For the fourth time in a couple of weeks, the IHME model that the US Government officials use shows another stunning drop in the number of projected cases leading to death. This model also shows that that the peak of impact from the coronavirus should occur on Saturday, April 11th. That’s this week, the day before Easter.
The total projected number of COVID-19 related deaths is now just over 60,000. This would make it equivalent to the 2017-18 flu season. Keep in mind that these models are dependent on inputs that may be best estimates of variable factors. Regardless, the estimates keep coming down as more real data is fed into the model.
Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci keep expressing caution. This is their role in this. They are scientists. They are not charged with making decisions about how to proceed as a country. They just provide input into the decision on when to re-open the country for business.
I would be very surprised if the numbers come anywhere near 60,000. If HCQ, Z-Paks and zinc sulfate are made widely available, fewer people will need hospitalization. This means there will be fewer deaths. This will lead to another revision to the model since the mortality rate will diminish.
Another item that is not receiving much notice with the media, are estimates that the number of people who may have already had the virus may be many times higher than the reported cases. Reports abound of people who had a bad cold for a couple of weeks during January and February. Was it COVID-19? Only an antibody test would prove this one way or the other.
What is known is that there are many, many known cases of COVID-19 that were very mild. If someone had a mild case and did not seek treatment, they do not show up in the stats but, they do contribute to the potential for “herd immunity.” That is a situation where sufficient numbers of people who have immunity create an environment in a community where it is difficult for an infection to spread.
The data continues to suggest that re-opening the country should occur sooner rather than later. There will be hot spots that may have to shelter-in-place a bit longer than others, but I would estimate that we are looking at something in the neighborhood of a few weeks at most for most of the country.
Let me finish with this. It seems to simple to me. The more hydroxychloroquine, the fewer hospitalizations. The fewer hospitalizations, the less who die from it. The sooner HCQ is widely available for outpatient use, the sooner the country gets back to work.
Once the country is back, the after-action reports on the duplicity of China and their allies in our MSM in perpetrating this pandemic on the world can be brought front and center.