An interesting dynamic is playing out in Hong Kong. Protests broke out a week ago over a proposed law that Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s first female chief executive, supports. The law would allow extradition of Hong Kongers to mainland China.
Please note the use of the term Hong Kongers. Although mostly descended from ethnic Chinese, the vast majority of the residents of Hong Kong do not consider themselves to be Chinese. Hong Kong has had long experience (150 years) with Western rule-of-law concepts. Additionally over 3 million people fled communist China in 1949 to the safety and freedom of Hong Kong. Hong Kongers are not conditioned culturally, as many of those on the mainland are, to the acceptance of totalitarian forms of governance.
As the Guardian noted,
Martin Lee, a former legislator in Hong Kong, said the government was “saying no to democracy and suppressing human rights and the rule of law”. Hong Kongers are very sensitive to Beijing’s intrusion into their civil rights. Hong Kong is supposed to exist under the “one country, two systems” regime, which guarantees it an independent legal system.
To say that the protests were massive, could very well be the understatement of the year. Estimates ranged from half a million to a million people participated on an island whose population is about 7.4 million.
As protests continued on Wednesday, police used rubber bullets and tear gas against the mostly peaceful protestors. More than 70 people were injured.
Lam visited mainland China presumably to discuss the situation with Chinese leadership. Upon her return she gave an interview where she referred to the protesters as “spoiled children.” This riled up people even more.
Reports on the ground in Hong Kong indicate that this may be a subtle warning coming from the Chinese leadership to Hong Kong. China is not known to be tolerant at all of demonstrations against the government. Thirty years ago such demonstrations led to a bloody suppression. This included people being run over by tanks in Beijing.
This weekend Lam backed down and “postponed” consideration of the new law. However, the law has not been withdrawn. This led to an even greater number of people protesting this past Sunday. Calls for independence like that enjoyed by Singapore are increasing.
The protests are a big concern for China’s leaders. Chinese censors have been blocking news of the protests from reaching the mainland as best they can. Their concern is copycat demonstrations on the mainland. However, word of mouth is a powerful method of communication. Despite there being no mention in Chinese history books about the Tiananmen Square atrocities, many people know about them.
In a very real sense this could not come at a worse time for China. Chairman Xi has told the Chinese people to prepare for a “Long March” due to the US tariffs. China has been massively subsidizing the tariffs so that companies will not have to pay them. Hong Kong has been exempt from the tariffs under a 1992 law granting Hong Kong special status.
Despite this, many companies are beginning to move their manufacturing operations to other countries in southeast Asia. Apple has indicated that they can produce iPhones without needing any Chinese inputs. Hong Kong has some 72 billionaires with some $800 billion US in assets. Capital flows out of Hong Kong have accelerated.
Up to this point Democrats and some Republicans have been siding with China on the tariff issue against the interests of Americans. However, the heavy-handed response in Hong Kong is making it more difficult for these corrupt politicians to continue their support for China. It is also leading to a call from some legislators to review Hong Kong’s status as an autonomous entity. This puts more pressure on the Chinese leadership.
Where this will end up is hard to predict. Xi can not afford to seen as weak. There might be a crackdown on Hong Kong from Beijing coming. Remember the most important priority for Xi and his brethren is to maintain power.
However, if the Chinese leadership think they can break a contract with Hong Kong, they need to stop and rethink. Hong Kong was free under the English and Hong Kongers like it. May God hear their prayers along with ours for freedom and signed contracts being kept.
And no matter what, all of this helps PDJT in his negotiations with China.