As Ukraine’s troop losses mount, (most honest estimates are currently at 400,000 to 500,000), Russian troops are advancing with greater ease on multiple fronts in Ukraine. Russia has opened up a new active front by advancing on Kharkov.
This attack at Kharkov appears to be more of a feint based on satellite images that indicate that Russia has not committed many troops to this foray. At this point in time, activity near Kharkov is probably designed to divert Ukrainian forces from other fronts. This weakens Ukraine’s ability to defend those areas. The recent recapture of Rabotino is a likely result of this feint. Let’s be reminded that the taking of Rabotino was the only success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive on the Tokmak axis last year.
The Russians appear to be stretching the front as much as possible. Ukrainian forces are already stretched relatively thin. By drawing Ukraine’s reserves and better units to the defense of Kharkov, the Russian attack weakens other parts of the front line.
Russia remains focused on occupying the remainder of the Donetsk region in the east, looking to seize key transit hubs and population centers. This is leading to an exhaustion of Ukrainian fighting units. Rumors are rampant about entire Ukrainian units surrendering en masse to Russian units.
There is massive internal resistance to the war inside Ukraine with 12 million people having left the country. Some 650,000 men of military age are living abroad. There has been talk in Europe of returning these people to Ukraine so that they can be conscripted into the UAF. That is, turn them into cannon fodder.
There are even more in ‘internal exile’ fleeing the government’s press gangs who kidnap them off the streets. And discipline within the ranks is not good either. As People’s Deputy of Ukraine Yuri Kamelchuk said: ‘At least 15,000 Ukrainian military personnel received disciplinary punishments for refusing to follow orders.’
This is where our money is going, trying to prop up a dictatorship. Ukraine is known as the most corrupt country in Europe. Widespread corruption has siphoned off much of the $200 billion of Western civil and military aid to Ukraine. Much money meant for the building of defense lines as the Ukrainian army retreats has been misappropriated by middlemen and contractors.
Stories abound of Ukrainian generals riding around Kiev in brand new BMWs, etc. The better question is how much of Western aid money has been recycled into Western politicians’ pockets?
Ukraine will probably hold on until after the US elections. However, this is not a certainty. With Zelenskyy’s term as President ending in a couple of days, who will be able to negotiate with Russia when the time to pull the plug comes?