Events continue to move rapidly in connection with the current pandemic. After Iran’s leaders denied over and over that any kind of a problem existed with the Wuhan virus in their country, on Tuesday Iranian state TV journalist, Dr. Afruz Eslami, offered three scenarios going forward. Iran has now dramatically reversed course and is admitting a crisis of monumental proportions.
First, based on a study by Sharif University of Technology (Tehran), Eslami said that if people fully cooperate with the Ministry of Health’s protocols, Iran may be able to limit the number of infections to 120,000 with 12,000 deaths before the outbreak ends. Elsami is depicting this as the BEST CASE SCENARIO for Iran. Of course, she is saying this after angry crowds stormed into the courtyards of Mashhad’s Imam Reza shrine and Qom’s Fatima Masumeh shrine. Crowds typically pray there 24 hours a day, seven days a week, touching and kissing the shrine. Roughly 90% of all cases in the Middle East are centered in Iran.
Eslami went on to say that if there is medium cooperation (there is no definition of what this means), Iran will experience 300,000 cases with 110,000 deaths. Clearly Eslami is depicting a situation where Iran’s health care system is overwhelmed.
It has been reported that a not insignificant number of high-ranking members of the ruling castes in Iran have died from the virus. These include Hossein Sheikholeslam, a renowned Iranian diplomat, as well as Mohammad Haj Abolghasem, a senior commander, also known as the ‘butcher of Tehran’ for his role in the bloody suppression of pro-democracy protests that began in November 2019. There are numerous other reports of deaths within Iran’s ruling elite.
Dr. Eslami did not detail the parameters that the study used. Perhaps the most alarming scenario was the third one where the people ignore the recommendations of the Health Ministry. In that case Eslami estimates 4 million cases with 3.5 million deaths. Clearly this scenario depicts a situation where Iran’s health care system has collapsed. The ill will be triaged. If you are one of the favored ones within the ruling hierarchy, you will be treated. Otherwise, you will be left to manage on your own.
With the Persian New Year with its normal festivities around the corner, there exists a risk of an exponential increase in the number of cases in Iran. The fact that the crisis is being acknowledged on Iran’s tightly controlled state television represents a major change for Iran. Iran had consistently denied that a problem existed until Tuesday.
These estimated mortality rates are astonishing. Perhaps the study concludes that the complete collapse of Iran’s health care networks is inevitable. Satellite images show mass graves being prepared. A video smuggled out of Iran shows one such mass grave being dug.
Just as China did in the beginning, Iran suppressed negative information related to the Wuhan virus. Recently Iran has rejected offers of assistance from western countries including the United States.
In a Feb. 28 press statement, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a remarkable offer.
America “stands with the people of Iran during the public health crisis caused by the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19),” the statement said. The U.S. government “is prepared to assist the Iranian people in their response efforts.”
While there was undoubtedly a public relations aspect to this offer, the U.S. offer of aid and selective sanctions relief was an act of real generosity, despite the nations’ political differences. America’s offer of lifesaving aid has put the “death to America” ayatollahs in a bind. The fact is that Iran’s leadership is putting many Iranian lives at stake by rejecting the offer of assistance.
At this point the real question here is “Can Iran’s ruling class prevent the collapse of its health care system?” Based on Dr. Elsami’s report and on the measures being taken, it appears that Iran does not think so.
Perhaps Lawrence O’Donnell from MSNBC should review the steps that Iran’s leadership has taken so that he might come to truly understand what incompetent leadership looks like. Oh, that’s right. I forgot. In the O’Donnell’s TDS-inspired view of the world, Muslims cannot be incompetent. Only PDJT can be.