Iran Deal

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President Trump has announced the Iran deal is complete.  According to sources, it will be signed in Switzerland on Friday, June 19th.

I have been skeptical about the truth of “deals” with Iran.  I am skeptical because of the lessons of the past with these zealots who are allowed, by their religion, to lie to non-believers in such matters.

According to the Trump administration, Iran will not get to keep any of their enriched uranium.

Where are we with Iran this time?  What litmus tests can we use to measure authenticity of such a deal? There are several ways to accomplish this. But perhaps the best is the reaction of true global markets.  What do the heavy weight players think?  How are they pricing risk in the markets?

Global market pricing often signals what the heavy hitters think.  In this case the commodities markets appear to be saying that this is real, not just “news”.  In the petroleum market, gas prices have declined significantly.  In this area it has been more than 15%.  And this started some 10 days ago well before the strategic announcements.

This would mean that the big players had some strong inklings that a deal with Iran was going to happen.  That would include that the Straits of Hormuz would be open for business again. You can see this in the price action, but also in the volume of trades in this market.

Do these markets get things wrong occasionally?  Yes, they do.  However, this movement of the market seems to be holding.

It’s going to be a very interesting in the days and weeks ahead because the Big Media maniacs will never report that energy prices and the market in general are benefitting Americans. They will frame it as “returning to normal.”  Big Media will downplay and dismiss the idea that Iran has been stopped from going nuclear.  However, I am sure they will highlight anything that detracts from this historic win such as, Obama trying to say that this is not better than what was in place before.

Thank you, President Trump.

God Bless America

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