There is all kinds of chatter about the ceasefire and just what is in the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). No media outlet, conservative or woke, had actually seen it. Many want to pontificate about the result without actually having the result in their hands.
Ninety-four days into this war, the Secretary of State Marco Rubio sat down before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and confirmed, under oath and on the public record, just what the situation is with regards to Iran.
Marco Rubio came to Capitol Hill on Tuesday supposedly for a budget hearing. What he delivered was the first sworn public accounting of a war that has been running without congressional testimony since February 28. The administration had successfully avoided such testimony through every procedural mechanism available. A budget hearing was the vehicle that finally put the Secretary of State in a chair under oath, and both sides understood what it was going to become before the first question was asked.
Rubio came prepared. Rubio defined the narrative and delivered a strategic public disclosure to Congress, the American public and to the world.
Rubio described a supreme leader who has not been seen publicly since the opening day of the conflict. He communicates only through handwritten notes passed through layers of intermediaries. Rubio outlined a two-phase framework with no sanctions relief offered at any stage until after major nuclear concessions are verified.
The idea of a two-phase compliance trap architecture was confirmed by Rubio. Here’s how it will work.
Tyler Piekarski notes:
Rubio told the committee that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a “predicate that opens the door to Phase 2” for nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran. Hormuz is not the deal. Hormuz is the price of admission to the negotiating table.
Phase 2, as Rubio defined it under oath, requires Iran to commit to very specific negotiations on the disposition of the highly enriched uranium still buried deep in a mountain somewhere. Tehran must agree to negotiating severe and long-term limitations on, or outright cancellation of, enrichment activity. Rubio acknowledged these technical matters could not be resolved quickly and would require a team of experts working over a 30, 60, or 90-day period.
Rubio stated that the United States has not offered Iran any sanctions relief in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. “That’s not been discussed. That’s not been offered,” he said. Sanctions relief comes only after significant concession on the nuclear program and the enriched uranium.
Let’s be reminded that all of this testimony is under oath. No carrots. Two phases. This is quite straight forward. “Relief for performance.” It has now been stated publicly by the Secretary of State in a Senate hearing. Tehran can no longer claim ambiguity about what Washington actually requires. The talking bobbleheads have been cut off at the knees.
Rubio acknowledged fractures inside the Iranian regime are so severe that the people negotiating with Washington may not have the independent authority to honor anything they agree to. And a Supreme Leader communicating via handwritten notes is certainly not the ultimate “in-charge” person.
What this means in the long haul is not clear right now. I am certain that Iran will try to stall hoping for some relief in November. Trump has been clear about what he thinks of this approach. This is what produced the MOU at this point in time.
Assuming the final destination (a non-nuclear, non-interfering Iran) is reached, a new stability should descend on the Middle East. What Iran will look like internally is anyone’s guess.